When he scored two minutes into overtime of Game 6 on Friday night, sending the Florida Panthers to the Second Round for the first time in 26 years, it also sent the Washington Capitals to their fourth consecutive First Round exit.
It is certainly a disappointing end for Washington, not only because it is a team that is another year older and closer to the end of its run than the beginning, but also because it was a series where it had plenty of opportunities to win. The Capitals did not get run out of the building by the Presidents’ Trophy winning Panthers, and it was certainly not the one-sided mismatch many expected it to be at the start. They mostly kept the Panthers in check and had leads (including a three-goal lead!) in each of the last three games of the series (all losses).
That, combined with the fact they have not advanced in the playoffs since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018, is going to lead to a lot of questions this offseason about what this team is and where it can still go.
Let’s try to tackle some of those questions now.
Just how good is this team as currently constructed?
The Capitals are clearly not where they were back in 2016, 2017, and 2018 when they were either winning the Presidents’ Trophy or the Stanley Cup every season. But they are still good.
They may have been the eighth playoff team in the East, but they still finished with 100 points in a very tough division. They also got there while Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Anthony Mantha (literally half of their top-six forwards) each missed half of the season due to various injuries. That also does not include the five games they played without Tom Wilson in the playoffs.
They also spent the year getting average at best goaltending from Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov as the duo finished 16th in 5-on-5 save percentage and 23rd in all situations. They were one of just three teams to finish below 18th in all situations save percentage to actually make the playoffs (Los Angeles at 19th, Toronto at 22nd, and the Capitals at 23rd), while no playoff team was lower than them. So even getting there with that level of goaltending is an accomplishment in itself.
Unfortunately, that position did not get much better in the playoffs.
There are a lot of flaws there, but the results were still pretty good. And that makes it easy to get sucked into the belief that better health and better goaltending could produce better results.
They have to find a goalie
The Capitals have used the Samsonov-Vanecek duo for two years now, finishing 19th and 23rd respectively in all-situations save percentage and not being close to good enough in the playoffs.
That is a problem.
Also a problem is the fact none of their goalies are currently under contract for next season (they are both restricted free agents). Is there anything that should make you think they should make a significant investment in either of them? Or that a “prove it” contract will result in a different outcome?
If the Capitals still have sights set on seriously competing this position has to get better. A quick look at the potential free agent options shows Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell as pending UFAs. Kuemper will be pricey and have no shortage of suitors if he hits the open market. Marc-Andre Fleury is also set to be available, but him playing in Washington does not seem to be in the cards.
In the end the Capitals received some of the worst goaltending of any playoff team in the NHL this season and no matter what else happens with the rest of your team that can be difficult to overcome. Is it the biggest problem in Washington? That is certainly debatable. But it might be the quickest fix.
Will everybody be back?
Aside from the goaltending question, the Capitals have a couple of pending UFA’s on defense (Justin Schultz, Michal Kempny, Matt Irwin) and still need some improvements.
They do not have a lot of salary cap space to play with because they have some significant contracts on their books.
Alex Ovechkin is not going anywhere. Unless Nicklas Backstrom decides to walk away and retire he is not going anywhere.
Evgeny Kuznetsov spent most of the 2021 offseason on the trade rumor mill, so it is worth pondering if the Capitals would explore that possibility again. But he also had a great bounce back year and was their best center this season. Trading him now seems counterproductive.
Anthony Mantha has a significant contract number and has not quite been what expected in Washington, but a lot of that has been due to a lack of availability. When healthy I still think he can be a really good player here and one that will ultimately be worth his cap number (and the price they paid to trade him).
Two names that should be in play? Oshie and Lars Eller. Oshie has been a fantastic Capital, but I do not know that he is going to age as well as players like Ovechkin, Backstrom, or Kuznetsov, and at a $5.75 million cap number for another three years, that might be one you try to get out of.
Eller is intriguing because his cap number is fair, he can still play his role pretty well, and the Capitals could use an extra $3 million to play with. There is also the fact Connor McMichael needs a bigger role and still only costs $863,000 against the cap for the next two seasons. You lose four years in a row you have to expect some changes, especially when you still have holes to fill.
The Capitals have been near the top of the NHL for a decade-and-a-half and been one of the league’s elite teams. When you are on top that long, and have a core that is getting onto the other side of their 30s, it is inevitable that a decline will arrive. That decline has definitely started to arrive. But it is not yet a cliff dive and it is clear this team can still be a playoff team, and a pretty good one. A full-blown rebuild will need to happen in time, but that time is not here yet. But some changes still need to be made if they are going to be more than a team that simply gets to the playoffs without being able to do anything once they get there.
TAMPA — The Florida Panthers will make some lineup changes going into Game 3 against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday afternoon.
After playing rookie Anton Lundell for just over four minutes on Thursday night, he will be out with Eetu Luostarinen moving up to center Maxim Mamin and Sam Reinhart on the third line.
Noel Acciari centers the fourth line with Ryan Lomberg and Patric Hornqvist.
Florida is also making a change to the top power play, with Hornqvist going up front.
Lundell has seen his time drop the past few games, going from 13-14 minutes early in the Washington series to 7:31 in Game 6. In the opener against Tampa Bay, he played over 14 minutes — with almost five of that killing penalties.
The 12th overall pick of the 2020 draft, Lundell had an excellent rookie season but Andrew Brunette said if Lundell was going to be scratched, it is only for his benefit.
Sunday morning, he confirmed Lundell would be out.
”It’s hard because he has been such an important player for us this year,” Brunette said on Saturday, adding he either would or already had spoken to Lundell about his declining minutes in the postseason.
“He has been running that third line and doing all those things. He kind of had his injury and hasn’t gotten up to the speed he had played at. This is hard hockey. I have lost him in a few games and that’s partially my fault. I think he probably lost a little confidence in between.
“If he comes out (Sunday), it’s good for a young kid to come out, take a look at it. He needs to be a little harder, a little better in certain areas. He needs to really dig in. This is hard hockey and he needs to find that. Again, he is a really young player and I don’t put too much stock in it. He is a really intelligent player who knows how to play. Sometimes it is healthy to come out and look at it from the outside.”
Florida also is making some changes to its much-maligned power play.
Claude Giroux was replaced on the top unit by Hornqvist, a player who is not afraid to get in front of the net and, as Brunette said, “creates some chaos, he’s a chaotic guy and sometimes you need that.’’
”We’re obviously going to be trying a whole bunch of different things,” Aaron Ekblad said, “trying to catch lightning in a bottle. It’s obviously been tough for us and that’s part of the reason we are in this. At the end of the day, it’s simple: Get pucks to the net, throw a number at the net. That’s something we’re going to try and do.”
The Panthers have gone scoreless in 25 power play chances this postseason and is 0-7 against the Lightning.
”We’re moving some different things, I don’t know exactly,” Brunette said. “Obviously we’re in a funk and have to try something different here. We had a couple different combinations going, we’ll see tomorrow. It could all be different ones, who knows? We have a lot of good players here. We just need to find something that clicks.”
Brunette said every player will get the “opportunity the longer we play” when asked about veteran forward Joe Thornton not being in the lineup yet this postseason.
“He’s been a great soldier and has been really good for our group,” Brunette said. “He brings such enthusiasm and you talk about a guy who has seen everything, he has been through everything. He is a really good asset for us to lean on.”
Playoff history: Second meeting; Tampa Bay d. Florida 4-2 in R1, 2021
Round 1: Florida d. Washington 4-2; Tampa Bay d. Toronto 4-3
Full schedule — Game 1: Tampa Bay 4, @Florida 1;Game 2:Tampa Bay 2, @Florida 1;Game 3: Florida at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1:30 (TNT); Game 4: Florida at Tampa Bay, Monday, 7 (TNT); Game 5*: Tampa Bay at Florida, Wednesday, May 25 (Time, TV TBA); Game 6*: Florida at Tampa Bay Lightning, Friday, May 27 (Time, TV TBA); Game 7*: Tampa Bay at Florida, Sunday, May 29 (Time, TV TBA). (*) — If necessary.
PROJECTED FLORIDA PANTHERS LINEUP
Coach: Andrew Brunette
23 Carter Verhaeghe // 16 Sasha Barkov // 28 Claude Giroux
11 Jonathan Huberdeau // 8 Sam Bennett // 10 Anthony Duclair
TAMPA — The Florida Panthers have been making comebacks all season long. They are desperately in need of another.
Down 2-0 in their series with the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Panthers may just be in their comfort zone.
Even if it really does not feel that way.
“We realize the opportunity in front of us to get it to 2-1 and if we do, then it’s ‘go-time’,” Aaron Ekblad said on Saturday. “We are a resilient group, have been down in games and know how to battle back, how to keep it light and find a way to breathe positivity in that room to give us a chance. …
“You saw New York come back from down 3-1 and that’s even more nerve-wracking so it’s 2-0 and we’re facing adversity. We’re confident we can come out and play a good, strong game. … The fact that we’re resilient is awesome. You love to see it. We’re comfortable because we can be down 2-0 and come into practice today and put our work hats on and go to work.”
The Panthers are now in a position where, to move on to the Eastern Conference final, they need to win four of the final five games in this series.
Three of those games being in Tampa certainly does not make this hill any easier to climb.
Florida is just going the old one-game-at-a-time route.
”It’s playoff hockey and every game is going to be hard whether it is at home or on the road,” Sam Bennett said. “It’s short-term memory. It stung in the moment, but you move on and just look to the next game. That’s really all we can do. We’re a dynamic team and have gone through quite a bit of adversity. It’s just another challenge for us.”
PANTHERLAND
Are the Florida Panthers out of this series? Not by a long shot. Here are some things they need to do to get right back into it.
— The Panthers practiced in a foggy rink on Saturday following a heavy round of rainstorms the night before. After losing Thursday night, the mood seemed to fit.
— Old pals the Checkers and Thunderbirds meet in Round 3 which starts today. The Panthers are obviously familiar with Springfield since it used to be their affiliate until the two split in 2020. This is Florida’s deepest AHL playoff run in as long as I can remember.
— Thursday night’s postgame media sessions are up on the FloridaHockeyNow YouTube channel — if you want to hear from Eetu Luostarinen, Sergei Bobrovsky and Brunette, check it out.
Will also have a special pregame from Tampa (if I can find a place to record) and postgame today.
If you like what you see on the YouTube channel, please subscribe!
Nazem Kadri collides with St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington who leaves the game — and then apparently chucks a water bottle at Kadri while he does his postgame on TNT. Fun night for the Colorado Avalanche.
— Bryan Rust will be staying in Pittsburgh for the long haul.
— Is Bruins team president Cam Neely moving on from coach Bruce Cassidy?
Playoff history: Second meeting; Tampa Bay d. Florida 4-2 in R1, 2021
Round 1: Florida d. Washington 4-2; Tampa Bay d. Toronto 4-3
Full schedule — Game 1: Tampa Bay 4, @Florida 1;Game 2:Tampa Bay 2, @Florida 1;Game 3: Florida at Tampa Bay, Sunday, 1:30 (TNT); Game 4: Florida at Tampa Bay, Monday, 7 (TNT); Game 5*: Tampa Bay at Florida, Wednesday, May 25 (Time, TV TBA); Game 6*: Florida at Tampa Bay Lightning, Friday, May 27 (Time, TV TBA); Game 7*: Tampa Bay at Florida, Sunday, May 29 (Time, TV TBA). (*) — If necessary.
Welcome to Sunday’s Marlins (17-22, +16 RD) vs. Braves (19-21, -10 RD) game thread. For what feels like the hundredth time in his career, Sandy Alcantara takes the mound tasked with preventing the Fish from getting swept in a series. Both teams are wearing camouflage hats in honor of Armed Forces Day.
Our free Marlins prop bets contest has returned…with a few tweaks.
Use this Fish Picks link prior to every Marlins series to submit your predictions. I have divided the Marlins schedule into nine separate “innings” and will be awarding a BreakingT t-shirt to each inning’s points leader. The second inning runs from May 20 through June 9.
Anderson’s 2022 pitch distribution and Statcast percentile rankingsBaseball Savant
Notes:William Contreras made the difference in Saturday’s game with two home runs. That’s more than all Marlins catchers have totaled this season…Kenley Jansen has allowed runs in back-to-back appearances after throwing up zeroes in 13 of his previous 14 games.
Alcantara’s 2022 pitch distribution and Statcast percentile rankingsBaseball Savant
Lineup Changes from Previous Game: Aguilar, González and Stallings in, Payton Henry, Miguel Rojas and Jorge Soler out; Cooper switches from 1B to DH
Pregame Roster Moves:Joe Dunand recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville, Daniel Castano optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville; Richard Bleier sent on rehab assignment to Jacksonville
Additional Notes: Great news on Chisholm, who was visibly hurting in the final innings on Saturday, but might not miss any time after all. Dunand has been called up in case he re-aggravates his left knee issue, or if Rojas (left calf tightness) requires some time off.
How to Watch/Listen/Follow
First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Watch on Bally Sports Florida—Paul Severino and Tommy Hutton in the booth—or listen to the radio broadcast on Fox Sports 940 Miami (Kyle Sielaff and J.P. Arencibia). Out-of-market viewers can stream the game on MLB.TV.
Louis Addeo-Weiss and Kevin Barral are representing Fish Stripes at LoanDepot Park as credentialed reporters. Follow them on Twitter (@addeo_louis00 and @kevin_barral) for in-game updates. Louis will handle the game recap article.
Three of the four Marlins full-season minor league affiliates are also in action. Follow @FishProspects for notes and highlights.