Sports

2022 NBA draft lottery: Everything you need to know from odds to prospects

Published

5 days ago

May 14, 2022

Miami Standard News Staff

2022-nba-draft-lottery:-everything-you-need-to-know-from-odds-to-prospects

When is the 2022 NBA draft lottery?

The 2022 NBA draft lottery is scheduled for May 17 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) in Chicago.

The city will subsequently host 76 prospects at the league’s annual draft combine from May 18-20.

What is the draft lottery?

The lottery determines the order of the first four selections for the June 23 draft. Eligible teams either did not make the playoffs this year or own the draft rights to one of 14 teams that failed to make the playoffs.

Fourteen ping-pong balls are placed into a lottery machine. The balls are spun at timed intervals before four are drawn. Teams are assigned a percentage of 1,000 possible four-digit combinations based on records.

(A 1,001st combination goes unassigned and is skipped if drawn).

The first drawing determines the No. 1 overall pick, and the process is repeated for picks 2-4.

The 10 teams that failed to win a top-four pick are slotted 5-14 based on records, starting with the worst.

NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum will unveil the 14 lottery slots in reverse order.

What are the draft lottery odds?

Houston Rockets (20-62): 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (52.1% at a top-four selection)
Orlando Magic (22-60): 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (52.1% at a top-four selection)
Detroit Pistons (23-59): 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (52.1% at a top-four selection)
Oklahoma City Thunder (24-58): 12.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (48.1% at a top-four selection)
Indiana Pacers (25-57): 10.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (42.1% at a top-four selection)
Portland Trail Blazers (27-55): 9% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (37.2% at a top-four selection)
Sacramento Kings (30-52): 7.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (32% at a top-four selection)
*Los Angeles Lakers (33-49): 6% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (26.3% at a top-four selection)
San Antonio Spurs (34-48): 4.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (20.3% at a top-four selection)
Washington Wizards (35-47): 3% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (13.9% at a top-four selection)
New York Knicks (37-45): 2% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (9.4% at a top-four selection)
**Los Angeles Clippers (42-40): 1.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (7.1% at a top-four selection)
Charlotte Hornets (43-39): 1% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (4.8% at a top-four selection)
Cleveland Cavaliers (44-38): 0.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick (2.4% at a top-four selection)

Which teams do not own their lottery pick?

*The New Orleans Pelicans own the Lakers’ first-round draft pick (via the 2019 Anthony Davis trade) if three teams behind them in the lottery order do not jump into the top four and the selection remains in the top 10.

*The Memphis Grizzlies own that Lakers’ pick if it falls between 11-14 (via the 2021 Steven Adams trade).

**The Thunder own the Clippers’ first-round pick (via the 2019 Paul George trade).

Auburn's Jabari Smith is the highest-upside prospect in the 2022 NBA draft. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) — Auburn’s Jabari Smith is the highest-upside prospect in the 2022 NBA draft. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Who are this year’s top-four draft prospects?

The 2022 draft class features as close to a consensus on the top-four prospects as you will find, and any one of them could be selected No. 1 overall. The most probable lottery prizes are (in alphabetical order):

Paolo Banchero

Ht./Wt.: 6-10, 250 pounds | Class: Freshman | Duke: 17.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.2 apg

Banchero, 19, is a potential apex predator wing who blends length, versatility and skill as a creator and facilitator. He has room for improvement defending both bigs in the post and guards on the perimeter.

Chet Holmgren

Ht./Wt.: 7-0, 196 pounds | Class: Freshman | Gonzaga: 14.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.7 BPG

The long and lanky 20-year-old has every tool in his box. He can score at all three levels, facilitate as a primary or second playmaker and protect the rim on defense. Strength is his biggest question mark.

Jaden Ivey

Ht./Wt.: 6-4, 195 pounds | Class: Sophomore | Purdue: 17.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.1 APG

Ivey, 20, is an electrifying athlete who brings both power and skill to the combo guard position. He has shades of Ja Morant’s finish ability, Donovan Mitchell’s strength and both of their defensive weaknesses.

Jabari Smith

Ht./Wt.: 6-10, 220 pounds | Class: Freshman | Auburn: 16.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG

Smith turns 19 years old Friday and is the highest upside pick. He should score at an elite level from the outset of his NBA career, including from 3-point range, where he shot 42% on 5.5 attempts per game.

Follow Yahoo Sports NBA’s Krysten Peek for her latest mock draft and more insight on this year’s class.

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Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at rohrbach_ben@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach

Sports

Ely Sussman’s Top 30 Marlins prospects: Tier 2

Published

18 mins ago

May 19, 2022

Miami Standard News Staff

ely-sussman’s-top-30-marlins-prospects:-tier-2

Prospects within the same tier are largely interchangeable—considering their ceiling, floor, injury risk, position, room for development, ability to adjust and intangibles, I expect them to have similar career value.

The ranking of these players and the notes below were last updated on May 19, 2022.

2) RHP Max Meyer

Max Meyer had extraordinary results in 2021 despite slightly lower fastball velocity than what was advertised coming out of college. In his second professional campaign, he’s lighting up the radar gun, sitting in the mid-90s deep into his starts. Just imagine how much his stuff could play up even more out of the bullpen.

To shut up the skeptics who see middle reliever as a possible major league outcome for him, Meyer has developed a competent changeup. There are games where it legitimately earns him extra outs and others where it at least distracts opposing batters with its ample arm-side movement.

Beginning in early May 2022, I believed that Meyer was prepared to contribute to the Marlins starting rotation. His special slider will be effective against most lefties regardless of whether he has a feel for the changeup. However, the Marlins aren’t in a hurry to bring him up.

Meyer plays with a combination of awareness, athleticism and competitiveness that should allow him to overachieve relative his conventional pitching skills. All things considered, I have significantly more trust him in then I do Miami’s next-best prospects, justifying a one-man tier.

Max Meyer’s Fastball

Max Meyer’s Slider

Max Meyer’s Changeup

Sports

Ely Sussman’s Top 30 Marlins prospects: Tier 3

Published

18 mins ago

May 19, 2022

Miami Standard News Staff

ely-sussman’s-top-30-marlins-prospects:-tier-3

The notes below were last updated on May 19, 2022.

3) INF Kahlil Watson

Kahlil Watson was a top-five talent in last year’s amateur draft class who fell into the Marlins’ lap at No. 16 overall. He is more physically mature than the typical high school pick and has grown to 5-foot-11 after being listed at 5-foot-9 entering the draft.

Watson’s outrageous swinging strike rate early in the 2022 season is gradually trending in the right direction. His quality of contact has been elite whenever he does put the ball in play. I do not use that term casually—Watson’s hard-hit rate with the Hammerheads is above 50%, a threshold only cleared by the finest major league players.

How much longer will Watson stick at shortstop? He has about the same number of errors committed as he does double plays turned—even in the low minors, that ratio makes me uncomfortable.

4) RHP Edward Cabrera

The similarities between Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara are undeniable, from their Dominican roots and 6-foot-5 stature to their plus-plus velocity and deep pitch mixes to their minor league results. Cabrera will occasionally be able to silence major league lineups on pure stuff alone.

But Alcantara evolved into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher as his command improved. That’s the unknown with Cabrera, who threw far too many non-competitive pitches during his initial call-up in 2021. That got him into undesirable counts, culminating in a disastrous combination of walks and loud contact.

Cabrera can accomplish a lot with his breaking balls alone, dropping curveballs into the zone to steal strikes early in the count and turning to sliders in putaway situations. The key is going to be locating his fastballs with more precision.

5) OF Peyton Burdick

I want to begin with Peyton Burdick’s defense. During his first summer in the minors, Burdick was used almost exclusively in left field. Since then, he’s been getting about half of his innings in center, and it’s not just a gimmick! His arm strength, route-running and decision-making compensate for his limited top-end speed. He can fake it there in MLB games depending on his supporting cast.

Burdick is a “three true outcomes” hitter—he produces a lot of home runs, walks and strikeouts…and not much else. His steep upper-cut swing path makes it difficult for him to connect with pitches above his waist.

He’s an imperfect player, but a valuable one.

6) OF JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday has bulked up and now physically resembles Burdick far more than he used to. He understands the benefits that come with elevating the ball, hitting fewer grounders than any other Marlins minor leaguer over the last few seasons. Even while slumping, he demonstrates great selectivity at the plate.

However, Bleday does not scorch the ball as regularly as Watson or Burdick. The former top draft pick has had a mid-.200s BABIP in the upper minors and that’s unlikely to improve in The Show if we continue to live in a world where infield shifting is permitted.

I doubt there’s a path to Bleday becoming an All-Star, but he is a sophisticated hitter who can diagnosis his issues and make adjustments.